Climate experts are warning that an impending super El Niño is set to deal a severe blow to African economies and potentially spark widespread migration from the hardest-hit regions.
According to climate specialists from the African Development Bank, the weather phenomenon could result in a combined economic impact ranging from $10 billion to $20 billion across affected nations.
Anthony Nyong, the bank’s director for climate change and green growth, noted that the event is projected to reduce the gross domestic product of heavily impacted countries by an average of one to two percent. He emphasized that the financial strain will likely linger for years rather than ending as a single-year setback.
A super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean rise more than two degrees Celsius above average levels. The pattern typically drives extreme weather across the continent, triggering severe droughts in Southern Africa alongside torrential rainfall and flooding in East Africa.
The previous El Niño cycle from 2023 to 2024 resulted in widespread agricultural failure, skyrocketing food prices, and record sea-level surges along African coasts.
Compounding the threat, the bank estimates that African farmers are already confronting nearly $330 million in lost income this year due to high energy costs and fertilizer supply chain issues linked to conflict in the Middle East. Fisheries are also expected to suffer as ocean temperatures climb and storm activity increases.
Ongoing regional conflicts, high debt burdens, and reduced international aid have further weakened the ability of many nations to manage these climate-driven shocks. The bank highlighted Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and Nigeria as countries at particularly high risk for severe impacts.
