Gross revenue distributed across the three levels of government expanded to N31.46tn during the first nine months of 2026, outperforming the full-year totals recorded in four of the previous five years, according to a recent assessment by Agora Policy.
The report, titled ‘Ten Insights from FAAC Disbursements for January–September 2026’, details that the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) generated N31.46tn between January and September. This figure surpasses the N28.74tn collected throughout all of 2024 and approaches the N35.81tn recorded across 2025.
While the data reflects notable nominal expansion in public funds, the analysis highlighted that monthly collections remained fluctuating, overall expansion was moderating, and mineral receipts lagged significantly behind budgetary projections.
Out of the allocations distributed over the nine-month period, the Federal Government received approximately N7.35tn, state administrations collected N7.01tn, and local government councils obtained N4.92tn.
The report stated, “The Federation Account Allocation Committee has completed the distribution of revenue for January to September 2026, following its October meeting. The figures show continued nominal revenue growth, but also volatile monthly receipts and a substantial shortfall in mineral revenue against budget. This analysis examines the sources of revenue, deductions and allocations across the three tiers of government, and considers the implications for fiscal planning and public services.”
Statutory revenue formed the bulk of overall receipts, contributing N24.25tn or 77.1 per cent of gross revenue, while Value Added Tax (VAT) brought in N7.21tn, representing 22.9 per cent.
The report further stated, “Of the gross revenue, N20.36 trillion, or 65 per cent, was available for distribution before augmentation. The remaining N11.10tn, or 35 per cent, was deducted for savings, interventions, refunds, transfers and collection costs.”
In addition, oil-producing states were allocated N1.53tn under the 13 per cent derivation principle, which channels a specific portion of mineral earnings directly to resource-bearing territories.
Total disbursements reached N20.81tn when factoring in a N450bn augmentation alongside the N20.36tn base amount available prior to the top-up. Meanwhile, deductions totaling N11.10tn (35 per cent of gross receipts) went toward statutory savings, interventions, transfers, collection charges, and refunds.
When compared with historic benchmarks, the nine-month gross total stood 240.8 per cent above 2021’s full-year total of N9.23tn, 154.5 per cent above 2022’s N12.34tn, 93.2 per cent above 2023’s N16.28tn, and 9.5 per cent higher than the N28.74tn realized across 2024. However, the study emphasized that these updates are strictly nominal and do not reflect adjustments for inflation or domestic currency valuation changes.
Year-on-year analysis demonstrates that gross revenue grew by N3.51tn (12.6 per cent) from the N27.95tn recorded between January and September 2025. Despite this gain, the pace of expansion has slowed, as the N3.51tn increase recorded in 2026 is less than half of the N8.97tn growth observed during the same nine-month window in 2024.
The sharp upward trajectory seen in 2024 was primarily driven by foreign exchange adjustments and petrol subsidy overhauls introduced in 2023. Further support in 2026 likely stemmed from ongoing tax administration updates and elevated crude oil pricing linked to Middle Eastern geopolitical tension in Iran, though exact attribution per factor remains unquantified.
Monthly receipts averaged N3.50tn across the nine months, compared to an average of N2.98tn during 2025.
Providing a historical overview, it stated, “Gross FAAC revenue for the full year rose from N9.23tn in 2021 to N35.81tn in 2025. The largest annual increase occurred in 2024, when revenue rose by 76.5 per cent from N16.28tn in 2023 to N28.74tn in 2024.
“By September 2026, cumulative revenue of N31.46tn had exceeded the full-year totals for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, and reached approximately 88 per cent of the 2025 total.
“The 2026 nine-month figure was 240.8 per cent above the 2021 annual total, 154.5 per cent above 2022’s, 93.2 per cent above 2023’s and 9.5 per cent above 2024’s. It should be borne in mind that these changes are in nominal terms, and not like-for-like measures of annual growth or purchasing power.”
Extrapolating the current trajectory through the end of the year indicates potential gross revenue near N41.95tn.
“If the nine-month pace continues, full-year gross revenue would reach approximately N41.95 trillion. This is a simple annualisation, not a forecast, as averages do not take account of seasonal revenue peaks,” it added.
The policy paper concluded by highlighting that fluctuations in international crude benchmark prices and foreign exchange rates over the final quarter could push the ultimate collection totals higher or lower.
