Commercial ties between Africa’s two largest economies are proving highly resilient to severe political friction.
Newly released data from the National Bureau of Statistics reveals that South African investors directed $983.83 million into Nigeria during the first quarter of 2026.
This massive surge comes despite resurfacing xenophobic violence targeting Nigerians and other African migrants in South Africa.
The first-quarter inflow represents a staggering 90.31 percent increase from the $516.96 million recorded in the final quarter of 2025, and a 96.26 percent jump compared to the same period last year ($501.29 million).
This injection positioned South Africa as Nigeria’s third-largest source of foreign capital for the quarter, accounting for 9.49 percent of the total $10.37 billion in capital imported into the country, trailing only the United Kingdom and the United States.
The broader NBS capital importation report indicates that Nigeria’s total foreign capital inflows reached $10.37 billion in Q1 2026, marking an 83.83 percent year-on-year growth. The United Kingdom led all nations by pouring in $5.08 billion (49.01 percent), with the United States following at $3.18 billion (30.69 percent).
Portfolio investments overwhelmingly dominated the landscape, bringing in $9.86 billion (95.09 percent), while Foreign Direct Investment remained sluggish at just $135.08 million (1.30 percent).
Sectorally, the banking industry swallowed up the lion’s share at $7.55 billion (72.79 percent).
On an institutional level, Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Limited brought in the most capital at $4.41 billion, followed by Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc at $2.78 billion and Rand Merchant Bank at $930.82 million.
Historical data reveals that South African capital investments in Nigeria have fluctuated heavily over the last two years. Capital flows started at $582.34 million in Q1 2024 before hitting lows of $185.03 million later that year, rebounding to $1.01 billion in Q2 2025, and eventually dipping back down to $516.96 million by late 2025 before the latest sharp upward turn.
This financial upswing stands in stark contrast to the severe diplomatic strains between Abuja and Pretoria. The recurring waves of anti-migrant hostility in South Africa, which date back heavily to 2008, have seen renewed fervor in recent months.
The violence has forced many foreign nationals to abandon their homes and enterprises, triggering intense backlash within Nigeria.
Prominent voices have publicly demanded severe pushbacks against South African corporate interests.
The Chairman and CEO of Air Peace, Allen Onyema, recently advocated for a strategic, non-violent economic counter-strategy during a televised interview on Arise Television. He urged citizens to completely stop investing in South Africa while asserting that South African authorities were failing to protect foreign nationals.
Onyema remarked, “The kind of retaliation I want is for Nigerians to boycott South Africa.
Don’t invest in that country. If they want to invest in our country, let them bring their money and invest, and you determine how they take the money back. That is non-violent action.”
Concurrently, the Nigerian federal government has voiced deep dissatisfaction regarding how the situation is being managed in Pretoria.
Following a briefing with President Bola Tinubu, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Amb. Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, warned that Nigeria is heavily weighing diplomatic countermeasures.
She strongly dismissed claims from South African officials that targeted Nigerians were merely undocumented individuals, pointing out that legitimate passport holders were facing systematic harassment and asset destruction while South African police stood idly by.
She highlighted Nigeria’s historical sacrifices to end apartheid to illustrate why the current situation is so unacceptable.
When asked if the government was planning to review or halt the operational privileges of South African businesses inside Nigeria, Odumegwu-Ojukwu stated, “That is a situation that we are considering. This is a decision that has to be taken at the highest level of government. But it is not off the table.”
Prior to her statement, the House of Representatives proposed a temporary freeze on business permits for South African corporations operating domestically, while the Senate resolved to send a high-level delegation led by Senate President Godswill Akpabio to lodge an official complaint in South Africa.
Yet, despite these aggressive geopolitical headwinds, corporate entanglement between the nations continues to deepen. Nigeria’s imports from South Africa actually spiked by 23.83 percent to N155.26 billion in Q1 2026.
Furthermore, major South African investment and pension groups, including the Government Employees Pension Fund and the Public Investment Corporation—recently toured the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals facility in Lagos with an eye toward future financial opportunities.
